Cycling fatalities are rising in the Netherlands – so, why are we still trying to emulate their approach?

THE SURGE in cycle activism in Britain during the 2010s was driven by blogging and social media campaigning, at the heart of which was the belief that in the Netherlands there was much more cycling, and that it was safer, per kilometre cycled. The London Cycling Campaign adopted the strap line ‘Love London, Go-Dutch’, which meant, essentially, inserting cycle tracks into London’s streets.

However, 15 years on, the situation with Dutch cycle safety does not seem to support their thesis. In fact, the scale of cyclist fatalities in the Netherlands is staggeringly high and particularly so in the last two years reported.

In 2023, Great Britain (GB) had 871 cyclist fatalities. In the Netherlands (NL) there were 2702 cyclist fatalities, and that in a country with a population a quarter that of GB. In other words, 12 times the fatalities per million population!

The personal health benefits of cycling outweigh many times the statistically small chance of death and injury to individuals, therefore public policy rightly aspires to more and safer cycling. But some of the assumptions that are made by the new cycle activism should be challenged, and in particular those suggesting that the Netherlands has all the solutions.

NL has a very high cycling mode share compared with Great Britain (GB). Therefore, the policy preference is to consider both the rate of cycling fatalities per km as well as the absolute numbers. This is where the Netherlands has been said to be much better than GB. In 2018 the International Transport Forum, part of the OECD, reported 21 fatalities per bilion km cycled for GB against eight fatalities per Bn Km cycled for NL3. In 2020 the European Transport Safety Council reported 19 fatalities per Bn Km cycled for GB against 13 fatalities per Bn Km cycled for NL4. These are both bona fide institutions in the field of transport safety.

However, these two snapshots mask the trends in both countries. In NL the rate of cyclist fatalities per billion miles cycled is trending upward with a significant jump in 2022. In GB this rate has been trending down. In 2023 in NL there were 15.65 cyclist fatalities per billion kms cycled. By contrast, the rate has fallen in GB from a high in 2006 to 15.01 now. The charts pictured show these trends. Each is published by the relevant NL5 and GB1 governmental organisation.

Comparing serious injuries is harder because severity of injury is, in part, a judgement made by those reporting the injuries. We also know there will be under-reporting of less serious injuries. Under-reporting is a particular problem with cycle injuries where no motor vehicle is involved, such as crashing into kerbs - which the Dutch seem to do a lot! GB data1 is collated from police reporting and some self-reporting by those involved, whereas NL data6 is from A&E hospital admissions. However, the trends of serious injuries follows a similar pattern to that of fatalities. In GB between 2013 and 2022 there was a 10% fall in serious casualties, in NL there was a 40% increase.

Number of traffic deaths per billion kms for car occupants, cyclists and pedestrians

The Netherlands

Great Britain

The Dutch institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV) has said road safety has been “thrown back in time by 14 to 15 years”7. There are many reasons put forward to account for these rising trends. Primary amongst them is the increased use of electric bicycles and in particular by older people. Solutions put forward include using helmets, enforcement of road traffic law and better cycle infrastructure with less to crash into.

The Netherlands has long been recognised as a cycling-friendly nation. Image: Dutch Cycling Embassy

Francis Road, in Leyton - one of the Mini-Holland projects in Waltham Forest

As you will note, the Netherlands is grappling with cycle safety too. But a question for us in Britain is whether we should carry on as we have been, trying to emulate the Dutch? We see e-bikes being heavily promoted in the UK these days. Should we carry on regardless under pressure from cycling activism? Or should we revert to data-led road safety interventions we know work, and keep a watchful eye on e-bike performance?

Britain used to have a data-led approach to road safety based on analysis and proper research. The Department for Transport (DfT) maintained a consistent approach requiring a thorough assessment of innovation. All that has changed. We see all manner of confusing, and apparently untested, road layouts appearing across the country, whereas we know that safer road layouts should be intuitive, understandable and self-explaining.

I welcome the new Transport Secretary Louise Haigh embarking on a fresh road safety strategy. A forensic examination of how we are doing on cycling would be helpful.

Note on Data

British casualty data is published by the DfT using adjusted serious injuries. Kms cycled is also DfT data from its annual road traffic estimates. NL casualty data is published by the governmental statistics body CBS. Kms cycled is published by KiM, a transport and policy analysis organisation within the relevant ministry.

References and Links

1. Reported road casualties Great Britain, annual report: 2023, DfT (casualties and rates by road user type)
   

2. Statistics Netherlands: 684 road traffic deaths in 2023

3. Exposure-Adjusted Road Fatality Rates for Cycling and Walking in European Countries, International Transport Federation (using data from 2011 to 2015).

4. How Safe is Cycling in Europe? European Transport Safety Council (using data from 2016 to 2018).

5. Mobiliteitsbeeld 2023, November 2023, KiM (Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis).

6. Cycling facts 2023, KiM (Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis).

7. Dutch road safety ‘thrown back in time 15 years’, European Transport Safety Council.