Latest issues under discussion amongst transport professionals
1) Un-required reading? | Peter Stonham | 13 November 2024
2) Rail use is growing – but is split ticketing inflating the estimated passenger numbers? | John Siraut | 13 November 2024
3) ‘Cycling First’ policy for London has badly damaged buses | Vincent Stops | 13 November 2024
4) Infrastructure investment. Buy now - pay later? | Peter Stonham | 31 October 2024
5) Is our transport regulation serving us well - and supporting this era of innovation? | David Metz | 31 October 2024
6) TRICS and Vision-Led Transport Planning: A New Era of Innovation and Development | Ian Coles | 25 October 2024
7) Yes, AVs can have a role - but only where they fit in | Peter Stonham | 16 October 2024
8) It’s like the Wild West on our streets. I can name the outlaws, but where’s the Sheriff? | John Dales | 16 October 2024
9) 34 million cars in the UK – but a changing mix of what they are, and who drives them | John Siraut | 16 October 2024
10) Cycling fatalities are rising in the Netherlands – so, why are we still trying to emulate their approach? | Vincent Stops | 16 October 2024
1) Elizabeth line defies elasticity models: modal transfers and generated demand provide new paradigm for high profile changes to network | Rhodri Clark | 1 August 2023
2) Rail use is growing – but is split ticketing inflating the estimated passenger numbers? | John Siraut | 13 November 2024
3) 34 million cars in the UK – but a changing mix of what they are, and who drives them | John Siraut | 16 October 2024
4) Latest London travel data drills down into changing daily patterns of bus and rail use | John Siraut | 21 May 2024
5) The Smeed Report on Road Pricing: Still influential after 60 years, but the difficult issues still remain | Phil Goodwin | 18 September 2024
6) Achieving behaviour change in transport — what should be the guiding principles? | Round Table Discussion | 31 January 2024
7) Bus Connectivity Assessment: a new element in the transport planning toolkit | Devon Barrett | 18 September 2024
8) Induced traffic: yet again a worryingly overlooked dimension in crucial road planning and appraisal policy | Lisa Hopkinson and Phil Goodwin | 19 June 2023
9) The Theoretical and Practical Limits to Demand Responsive Transport Services | John Sutton | 6 March 2024
10) What should the new Government do about Roads and Traffic? A Strategy for Truth and Reconciliation | Phil Goodwin | 17 July 2024
Un-required reading?
LAST WEEK, the Department for Transport released a batch of thirty research reports in a single day. They cover a range of elements, a significant number addressing inputs and processes used in Modelling and Appraisal, plus some modal-specific topics and scheme trial evaluations. Some are recently dated, but others were obviously delivered to the DfT over a period going back well over a year. This is the second such batch of reports to be issued in bulk within the past couple of months.
‘Cycling First’ policy for London has badly damaged buses
In the second in his series looking at cycling policy issues, Vincent Stops reflects on the damaging consequences of Boris Johnson’s London Mayoralty when he let his pro- cycling policy do significant damage to the Capital’s bus services. A more balanced approach is essential, he argues
Rail use is growing – but is split ticketing inflating the estimated passenger numbers?
Rail passengers numbers seem to have been bouncing back further since the big falls due to the pandemic. But are the figures being announced by the Office of Rail and Road telling the true story, based as they are on ticket sales rather than monitored actual journeys. John Siraut looks at the impact of the ‘split ticketing’ issue by which users save money by buying more than one ticket for a single journey
Is our transport regulation serving us well - and supporting this era of innovation?
Transport technologies and business models are changing fast, but are the established regulatory frameworks for them fit for purpose, wonders David Metz. He examines the various bodies in charge of authorising and supervising transport activities and sees some that are embracing change, but others not seemingly equipped to do so. It could mean lost opportunities to enhance transport provision and achieve greater efficiencies in its operation through innovation, he believes.
Infrastructure investment. Buy now - pay later?
IN HER BUDGET, Chancellor Rachel Reeves mixed talking tough on financial discipline - with some painful consequences in raising £40bn in new taxation to pay for day-to- day expenditures - coupled with the belief that “borrowing to invest”, will kickstart the economy and ultimately get Britain’s debt under control through the fruits of growth.
TRICS and Vision-Led Transport Planning: A New Era of Innovation and Development
For the past 35 years, the TRICS system of trip generation analysis has been an integral part of the Transport Assessment of thousands of new developments through the planning process. The interactive and inclusive relationship that TRICS has with its users has meant that it has constantly moved forward and innovated to meet changing industry needs, with examples including its introduction of multi-modal surveys and detailed Travel Plan information through its Standardised Assessment Methodology (SAM). In this article, Ian Coles charts the evolution and adaptation of TRICS and outlines why the system is ideally placed to be the evidence base necessary for vision-led Transport Planning.
Cycling fatalities are rising in the Netherlands – so, why are we still trying to emulate their approach?
The Netherlands has long been lauded as a safe cycling nation. But new data suggests that cycling fatalities there are on the rise, with the increased use of e-bikes, especially by older people, seen as a possible reason. In Britain, meanwhile, cycling fatalities and rates per billion kms are going down. Should we still be trying to emulate the Dutch approach to road safety, asks Vincent Stops, in the first of a three part series looking at current cycle policy issues.
Yes, AVs can have a role - but only where they fit in
AUTOMATED VEHICLES are in the news again - they could hardly not be if Elon Musk is involved. But the Tesla CEO’s launch of his much-fanfared Robotaxi at a glitzy event held at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California complete with dancing Robots was arguably more show than substance. Musk unveiled the Cybercab: a self-driving taxi which has two seats, no steering wheel and no pedals, saying, rather unconvincingly it would be available “before 2027”. “I think it’s going to be a glorious future,” he told the crowd. But glorious for whom, he didn’t amplify.
It’s like the Wild West on our streets. I can name the outlaws, but where’s the Sheriff?
The streets, kerbsides and pavements of our urban areas are a precious resource that support a varied set of activities contributing to our social, economic and cultural life. Considerate behaviour by all the different users, and strong management by the Highway Authorities are essential elements in making the best of things to everyone’s benefits, believes John Dales. But he sees instead a kerbside free-for-all akin to the Wild West, and thinks it’s high time to sort out the outlaws.
34 million cars in the UK – but a changing mix of what they are, and who drives them
The number of cars in the UK has continued to grow, but also to change in both the types of vehicle – and who owns them. So has the cohort of licence holders. John Siraut explores the characteristics of this huge fleet and their drivers, and what it means for transport policy.
Timing is crucial for a launch of road pricing - and might that time be now?
There have been a swathe of reports and articles over recent years campaigning and justifying the need for national road pricing in the UK, but it is critical to get the timing right. It could potentially take around three and a half years to put in place, believes Richard Sallnow. With a new Government in office, might the time to begin that process be now, he wonders? In this third part of his look at the topic he stresses it would require public and private sector collaboration, extensive public engagement and a good dose of political will.
Putting the car in its place
MARGARET THATCHER was reputed to have once asserted that ‘anyone on a bus over the age of 25 is a failure’.
We can’t prove whether the former Prime Minister did or didn’t say this, but it appears that the phrase was originally coined in post war Society circles and picked up and popularised by the Duchess of Westminster in the 1950s. At some point it became common to attribute the statement to Mrs Thatcher after she apparently said something similar in 1986.
Welsh 20mph default limit remains unpopular after first year, despite safety evidence
In September 2023, Wales took the radical step of changing the default speed limit on restricted roads in urban areas from 30mph to 20mph. Rhodri Clark comments on the first year of the new default limit, and considers why the policy remains unpopular despite strong early evidence of safety benefits
The Smeed Report on Road Pricing: Still influential after 60 years, but the difficult issues still remain
The idea of ‘pay as you go’ charging for road use has been around for more than half a century , but still only adopted in a handful of situations world wide . The case was lucidly made back in 1964 in the seminal report to the then Ministry of Transport by a panel led by Reuben Smeed. Attractive to many economists and traffic engineering technologists, the same cannot be said for the politicians who need to sign off schemes, observes Phil Goodwin. Here he explores the uncompleted journey towards the application of road pricing in the UK – and the circumstances in which it might yet happen.
Pandemic impacts fading into wider long-term trends, new NTS reveals
The newly published major tranche of data from the National Travel Survey 2023, is the first to be totally clear of direct effects of the Pandemic and the associated restrictions on activities and travel it brought. These clearly were a major interruption to normal behaviours, but John Siraut believes the new figures suggest that established trends have not been much changed- and probably just accelerated
Budget thinking could define this Government’s term for transport
SPECULATION IS GROWING about the transport implications of the new Labour government’s first Budget on 30 October. Both prime minister Kier Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have continued to warn of ‘tough choices’ to address a funding gap which will impact both the government’s tax and spending policies, whilst they talk the language of ‘new priorities’ and more rigorous approaches to meeting objectives and securing value for money from investment.
Bus Connectivity Assessment: a new element in the transport planning toolkit
A new tool to assess local bus connectivity has been created in response to the Department for Transport’s requirements for ongoing Bus Service Improvement Plans by Local Transport Authorities. Devon Barrett, CTO of Podaris, led the project at the transport planning and analysis software company. Here he describes how the tool was created to produce bus network connectivity metrics and discusses the need for continual refinement and increased discussion about what the concept of connectivity should measure.
Is this the chance to finally deliver new housing served by sustainable transport?
The new government is determined to see a major expansion in housing provision, linked, it says, to transport provision developed on the basis of the vision-led approach rather than ‘predict and provide’ highways-based thinking. Colin Black likes the ideas expressed in the revised National Planning Policy Statement, but is concerned that aspirations are not enough on their own to overcome established models of development. He looks at what the guidance has to say to make sure there can be no back sliding, and what work has already been done that can help specify the required content.
Housing Development and Highways - will we ever break the link?
Why does new housebuilding still so often mean major new highway investment asks Colin Black? Predict and Provide may be disavowed now, but the old paradigms of Transport Impact Assessment live on in both the types of housing provision proposed, and the accessibility arrangements supposedly essential to go with it. Can local planning and transport authorities themselves specify approaches that break the link - or is something much more definitive needed at national policy level he wonders. And might a new Government potentially have the motivation needed to deliver it?
Why we need to look at Travel Behaviour differently now
The new government is promising to take a different course on transport, but it is not just policy change on railways and buses, and even roads, that’s needed, believes David Metz. A core component of thinking must be to reassess what kind of travel behaviour we are seeking to cater for now, and where that fits in wider national objectives, especially decarbonisation. In view of the importance of the subject, he’s written a new book about it, which he reflects upon here.
An industrial view of a public policy puzzle
THE LONG-AWAITED report from the group led by Juergen Maier commissioned by Transport Secretary Louise Haigh when in opposition, has come as something of a disappointment to anyone hoping to see the full shape of the new Government’s transport strategy emerging, or even a comprehensive vision for the two subject areas it has specifically addressed - rail and urban transport.
Peak Complexity – Why Things Stop Working, and how that Should Worry the Transport Sector
The rise of complex systems and a dependency on new information technologies that seem beyond human supervision or intervention when things go wrong is a worrying recent development across society , but particularly in the world of transport, believes Steve Melia. He is concerned that such systems and processes are not only bringing new problems, but doing little to address the fundamental challenges that really need attention- like tackling climate change. He wonders if simplification and reduction in the systems we use is being overlooked in seeking better ways forward.
The big challenges for transport from Labour’s devolution plan
The new Labour Government promises a significant further step in the devolution of responsibilities from Westminster to Mayors and Local Transport Authorities. But whilst the intentions are good, the devil will be in the detail says Ralph Smyth. He examines the extensive range of overlapping issues to be addressed with new powers, arguing clarity about responsibilities and resourcing is urgently needed. It is going to be a challenging process to get an effective and durable new settlement in place, he believes.
The Machine Stops
THERE ARE certain industries that, due to their time-critical nature, service delivery structure, and user characteristics and expectations, are particularly susceptible to any system downtime or unpredictable interruptions to service. Transport and logistics have become a prime example in our modern digital world, meaning everything from passenger transport services to traffic control and freight distribution are in the front line for any IT system failure.
How will the Government deliver on infrastructure now? Does Reeves’ speech point way to new private finance plans?
The Chancellor Rachel Reeves has told Parliament that the new Labour Government has inherited a financial black hole, and has instructed the Transport Secretary that she must go through her Department’s capital spending plans in detail to make savings and ensure value for money. Peter Stonham looks at the challenge that poses.
What should the new Government do about Roads and Traffic? A Strategy for Truth and Reconciliation
The new Labour administration is faced with making a challenging set of decisions about controversial highway schemes inherited from the previous Government, and setting out a wider framework of future roads and traffic policy, which it didn’t do before the Election. Phil Goodwin argues that a long hard look at the legacy position and establishment of clear set of objectives is needed to anchor decisions going forward. He suggests the establishment of thoughtful and inclusive independent review would really help that process
Transport matters a lot - but not in elections. And that, on the whole, is a good thing
This publication, and its readers, are both really concerned about transports matters. But, as John Dales argues here, that’s not generally the position of most ordinary citizens, with transport not at all a defining issue when it comes to national elections. So why, he wonders, did the Conservatives go overboard in trying to make the needs of drivers a key plank of their pitch? He’s pretty confident it was a pointless exercise, and is quite pleased about that too.
Labour starts its transport journey…But who is deciding the path?
IN JUST A WEEK OR SO since the General Election, the new Labour Government has been very active in asserting the arrival of a new era in British politics. Though not the highest of profile areas, transport has had its fair share of attention, particularly in the choice of the full ministerial team of five, led by Louise Haigh, taking forward her former role as Shadow Transport Secretary, but with two particularly interesting ministers in support — Lord Peter Hendy, spearheading Labour’s rail agenda, and Lilian Greenwood given the interesting title of Future of Roads Minister — alongside Simon Lightwood leading on Local Transport, and Mike Kane responsible for Aviation and Maritime.
Round Table Discussions
Second successful ‘Transport Thinking Forum’ Round Table event in association with TAPAS tackles ‘changing travel behaviour’
We are very pleased to record our holding of the second successful ‘Transport Thinking Forum’ Round Table event in association with TAPAS, which addressed the theme of achieving behaviour change in transport. You can read several articles on this topic on TAPAS.
First successful ‘Transport Thinking Forum’ Round Table event in association with TAPAS
We are very pleased to record our holding of the first successful ‘Transport Thinking Forum’ Round Table event in association with TAPAS, which addressed the theme of achieving a sustainable future for UK transport.
Reviews and Reflections
Phil Goodwin
Professor Phil Goodwin is Emeritus Professor of Transport Policy, University College London and University of the West of England. He was head of the Transport Studies Unit at Oxford University for 16 years, before moving to UCL in 1996.
50th Anniversary of the Transport Studies Unit, Oxford University: A Memoir
Having been (up to now) TSU’s longest serving Director, I was pleased to open the 50th Anniversary celebrations, with an assessment of its changing role over the years.
The arc of TSU has been an unusual one. The pre-history in the 1950s was intended as a focus for the intellectual activity of the transport industries. The Unit itself started in 1973, with Ian Heggie as Director, as a mostly detached part of the Economics Sub-Faculty, with almost no teaching, entirely self-funding, and research that was a challenge to the prevailing transport orthodoxy of economics-based modelling. When I was Director, it developed a strong research-based influence on policy, mostly in challenging the predominance of ‘predict and provide’ approaches subordinated to car dependence. At the height of this influence, in 1994, we were awarded an exceptional ESRC ‘centre of excellence’ designation, with 10 year funding based on rethinking traffic growth and replacing equilibrium methodologies by dynamic ones: that work was completed not in Oxford, but by the Unit decamping to London.
Arman Farahmand-Razavi
Arman Farahmand-Razavi is a transport and planning advisor and a business strategy professional. He is the joint editor of the TAPAS.Network.
This might turn out to be another significant moment
Arman Farahmand-Razavi offers his personal reflections on a forum that embraced the big issues of our time, and how it has reminded him of past gatherings of the sector’s leading thinkers
REFLECTING on the 5th Annual Local Transport Summit in Brentford last month, I felt privileged to be part of a discussion that could come to be seen as a significant moment in the history of professional transport planning in the UK. The significance may not have been the event itself, or any of the individual speakers and their presentations. But after the traumatic experience of the past 18 months it provided a special opportunity to get together physically and to take stock of what had changed in the world since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
And the world certainly seems to be a different place, needing new approaches to addressing the very real challenges that humanity faces.