New Thinking required for our new Age of Uncertainty

CONFIRMATION that we live in a world that is unstable, unpredictable, and in many respects full of unimaginable and disruptive events has come very clearly from recent upheavals to the global economic order. It is said that the one thing that business needs most is predictability, but it might also be said that it is the one thing that it is very unlikely to now get. Though it is not just businesses that need to get their head around this new world order- or lack of it.

The relative stability of the Cold War and the associated international political situation was broken by the collapse of the Soviet Union, and an expectation in many quarters that the former countries of that block would progressively take the established Western journey to liberal democracy and a free market economy approach familiar to countries like the UK. It was even subsequently projected that the same course would be taken by countries in the Middle East, Asia, and other parts of the world, shaking off communism, socialism or authoritarian rule.

It rather obviously hasn’t turned out that way. Even the supposedly stable western democracies have become increasingly fractious and fragile, the leading example now being the USA. Meanwhile, anyone seeking to predict the next iteration of government in any country is faced with many unknowns and strange possibilities.

Against this background, ‘global capitalism’ is creaking, and with it the basis of much of the familiar business and investment planning that it has much depended upon. How big markets will be, what disruptive events will be occurring, and who can provide the anchor for reliable projections of costs and income flows are all tough questions to answer these days.

Alongside this, there are the other unpredictables of technological development, resource availability and depletion, social upheaval, and contested cultural values — not to mention the impacts of climate change.

Transport sits in the eye of this storm at both macro and micro level. For the macro perspective, the volume and character of transport activity could change significantly with a reduction in global trade, international flows of goods and people, changing spatial relationships, reduced available consumer choices and perhaps levels of national wealth and its distribution. At the micro level, the lives of individuals and the character of businesses and their movement needs and patterns could also be reshaped by new kinds of economic activity, the replacement of physical by virtual connectivity, and a renaissance - perhaps by necessity - of localism.

All these prospective upheavals would change what transport is required, and its appropriate delivery model. Interestingly, some of these new patterns might be the ones that help address the threats from uncontrolled climate change, where arguably the transport message needs to be ‘less is more’.

Local Transport may seem a minor matter in all this turmoil, but it will not be immune from it, and the impacts are already being felt. From the fortunes of the Economy and available public resources,household spending power and political change.

Many of these linked issues are embedded in the coverage in issue 913 of LTT magazine, and indeed others over the past few months. Matters such as the switch to electric vehicles as written about in his column by John Dales, the values and principles of transport planning and who is properly part of the conversation about it as explored in our latest Deep Thinking contribution by Colin Black, and the basis of government decisions on airport and highway expansion and the future of the rail and motor industries, amongst others, including that of the British Steel plant in Sunderland.

Nearly fifty years ago the name The Age of Uncertainty was chosen for a 1977 book and television series about economic and social change, written and presented by legendary Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith.

Galbraith acknowledged the successes of the free market system, but associated it with instability, inefficiency and social inequity. The title reflected the sharp contrast between the great certainty in 19th century economic thought and the evolving situation in the latter part of the 20th Century

The same title now would seem equally appropriate, but with an even greater and growing resonance amongst most ordinary people that they cannot feel confident about the future and what turbulent upheavals look set to turn their lives upside down, with even less assured views of what lies ahead and what are the anchors on which decisions can reliably be made.

LTT magazine’s and TAPAS ‘Deep Thinking’ initiative this year has proved rather timely in prompting discussion about the right priorities for transport decision-making and the context for transport within the wider economic, social and political agenda. Following the excellent set of contributions LTT was pleased to announce in the last issue that an important and potentially significant new event, Transport Future 2050, will be taking place in June.

We want it to allow an open discussion around the ingredients of a vision for the future of transport in our changing society, the shape of which in itself is not yet at all clear. The Deep Thinking series of excellent and diverse contributions has been seeking to identify overlooked issues, neglected perspectives and unsuitable processes, rather than set out any shovel- ready policies and projects. In that sense the discussion suggested is rather the antithesis of being ‘mission’ driven, but seeking to first understand what we should be dealing with rather than where we need to get to, and just picking some simplistic target numbers for that.

Our new summer exploratory discussion event is designed to put ‘what if/why not’ thinking centre stage, and explore the character of a realistic, feasible and sustainable multi-element 25-year vision for how transport planning and provision fits where we are heading socially, economically and technologically through to 2050 and beyond. And consider the possibilities and necessary responses to practical challenges and constraints that must be recognised and addressed before it is too late. The idea is to unlock alternative concepts about transport for a different future by breaking the mould of current thinking about the deep- seated problems and looking for the broadest possible ideas and opportunities available to address them.

Perhaps we might then be able to at least start to do some things rather differently in response to the challenges we can both perceive now and envisage facing over the next 25 years.

There is now a real need to recognise that landscape, and maybe identify a new basis of which to navigate across it – if we are prepared to accept the need to take stock of the adequacy of our insight and understanding and maybe find smarter solutions to both familiar and emergent challenges. It means looking afresh at the creative space between the supply and demand for transport – and the alternatives to traditional thinking about the place of mobility and connectivity in our changing world.

Coupled with a summer style evening ‘after party’ for socialising and networking, we want this event in Regent’s Park on June 10th to be stimulating, enjoyable, memorable and professionally rewarding. We look forward to seeing many LTT and TAPAS readers there- and there is both booking priority and a cost privilege to help you as a subscriber, to attend!

Peter Stonham is the Editorial Director of TAPAS Network

This article was first published in LTT magazine, LTT913, 16 April 2025.