TAPAS.network | 19 December 2022 | Editorial Opinion | Peter Stonham

Forecast: Stormy

Peter Stonham

PUBLICATION BY DfT of a new set of National Road Traffic Projections — interestingly renamed from the previous ‘Forecasts’ — crystallises a range of issues bubbling away to a prospective boiling point in respect of the horizons that those concerned with transport and mobility should realistically be working to. 

This potent mix includes the future of the economy, of social stability and Levelling Up, and of addressing climate change and achieving Net Zero. How all these elements combine in terms of a suitable transport policy is a yet unresolved conundrum. Detailed traffic projections for 2060 in this context seem a somewhat esoteric — and technocratic — distraction.

Such issues were much to the fore at the Local Transport Summit earlier this month. Not only did many of the speakers touch on some or all of these topics, but the fact that the event was held in Wales served to provide a really helpful ‘case study’ context, no more so than through the experience of a radical and eager young minister seeking to drive forward a future of change in transport, navigating a range of obstacles in so doing.

Elsewhere in this issue, we cover much of what went on at the Summit in Cardiff, and set out what the NRTP’s core message is, for England at least. And that is principally not about the actual numbers produced at all, given that there was no plausible scenario evident to the DfT team responsible for the projections that shows anything other than a rise in road traffic over the next 40 years.

A considerable number of expert observers will comment that a scenario of continuing road traffic growth cannot be a feasible basis on which to base any policy decisions, for both the reason of incompatibility with already stated Government commitments and intentions for decarbonisation and modal change. Furthermore, embracing the necessary market, regulatory and behavioural shifts — if they are to be material — will surely serve to significantly dampen any traffic growth that would ‘in normal circumstances’ have taken place.

The inconsistencies in both figurework and thinking continue to be under challenge by forensic academics like Professors Phil Goodwin and Greg Marsden. Both, in different ways, are tenaciously pointing out that contradictory positions are being put forward, not just by politicians but by public bodies and public servants in seeking to justify transport projects and investment whilst at the same time ostensibly accepting that an alternative future must be the basis of any trajectory to genuinely achieve net zero and deliver climate change temperature rise limitation.

quotations 5

Some believe that the majority of politicians are simply unable and unwilling to countenance spelling out the true magnitude of the challenge and the change required to bring our transport behaviour into line with the needs of the moment.

Some believe that the majority of politicians are simply unable and unwilling to countenance spelling out the true magnitude of the challenge and the change required to bring our transport behaviour into line with the needs of the moment.

They are presumed to fear that the public — the electorate — will go elsewhere if confronted with the real implications. But as Professor Peter Jones told the Summit in a timely aside, when politicians were asked in a trans-European survey what they think people will accept in terms of prioritising sustainable modes over car use in towns and cities, they believe it does not extend to the level of change required. In contrast when ordinary people are asked what they think is holding back that necessary change, they blame the politicians.

Either way, the prospects are of stormy weather ahead. Literally, in the case of growing incidences of climate induced freak and frequent damaging conditions, and metaphorically in continuing fractious argument between those seen as burying their heads in the sand, and those campaigning for an urgent change of course.

Even in the relatively simple matter of exposing the full background facts of the situation, the establishment is digging its heals in — be it ministers and the DfT in the case of the inputs for and access to their technical documents, and for agencies like National Highways in the shaping of their investment strategies and the logic and justification behind them.

In Wales, the situation is different, but perhaps has parallels. Minister Lee Waters has made considerable progress in bringing in policies like lower urban speed limits in the cause of road safety and neighbourhood lifestyle quality, but his strategy for radically supressing new road construction seems yet to be secure.

The Sloman review of whether and which of 50 road schemes should go ahead has been presented to the Welsh Government, but not yet published. Meanwhile, the prospects of some of the main projects surviving is suggested by the latest scheme pipeline publication.

It appears we will soon know if the radical agenda that Waters supports for Wales will win out, or pragmatic precautionary politics will be the victor. Whatever the result, we can be pretty sure that the battle will go on – in Wales, and elsewhere around the UK too. And we can be rather more confident about that prospect, than anything to be found in the new NRTP tabulations.

Peter Stonham is the Editorial Director of TAPAS Network

This article was first published in LTT magazine, LTT859, 19 December 2022.

d2-20220516-1
taster
Read more articles by Peter Stonham
Coping with a world of unintended consequences
THERE IS PERHAPS no better example of how limited the forward thinking about the implications of human behaviour has been for transport than the explosion of suburban low-density car-dependent development that took place in the post-war period, and became known as suburban sprawl. Perhaps at its worst in north America - Los Angeles is probably the epitome of its adverse consequences - it has been nonetheless a very significant foundation upon which transport activity in the UK has moved in an unwelcome direction in terms of sustainability and carbon-intensive mobility, creating a legacy which is now urgently in need of remediation.
A case for better decision-making
BUILDING NEW TRANSPORT FACILITIES has become completely different in concept and rationale in the 200 years or so since the early rail and road entrepreneurs began to develop the first examples of what we now call infrastructure.
Finding funding for sustainable local transport: a tale of three cities
HOPES OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES finding new sources of funding for their sustainable transport strategies have been dealt a blow with the news we report in this issue that Leicester City Council has scrapped plans to introduce a workplace parking levy (WPL) next year, citing the current political and economic situation. But it is that very situation – a squeeze on government spending and apparent lack of clarity or resolve at national level to tackle transport challenges in new ways -– that makes grasping the nettle at local level even more urgent.
Read more articles on TAPAS
Achieving a genuinely sustainable transport future for the UK
WE ARE VERY PLEASED to record our holding of the first successful TAPAS Round Table event in association with the ‘Transport Thinking Forum’ , which addressed the theme of achieving a sustainable future for UK transport. We were delighted with the response from our invited participants drawn from the TAPAS contributors and other professional colleagues who comprised 30 people bringing a range of perspectives and experience on this important subject. This lead to an excellent discussion and kick off what we hope to be a valuable ongoing professional exchange in events of this kind. We are indebted to Professor Greg Marsden who provided a comprehensive introductory presentation in the first session, setting the scene with background information on the issues and challenges as addressed in a range of Government policy papers over the last few years. Greg gave these a forensic examination for inconsistencies and direct contradictions leading to the conclusion that there was not a genuine pathway to sustainability, and in particular net zero, in place.
Latest London travel data drills down into changing daily patterns of bus and rail use
Post-pandemic travel behaviour changes have brought a number of challenges for transport authorities and operators, with both revenue implications and service planning issues to address. Tracking data has been emerging only patchily, so John Siraut has been pleased to examine the comprehensive information now available from Transport for London on key trends.
Infrastructure obsession ignores optimising condition and capacity
Governments and political leaders like talking about infrastructure — most specifically new infrastructure. This Government in particular seems to want almost to be measured in terms of the quantity of infrastructure it can get delivered during its term — housing, roads, power stations, and airports, to name some obvious examples. It says all this is in the name of increasing economic growth and improving the overall economy for working people. But those people, of course, have other concerns, many related to the way that the nation’s existing infrastructure is being looked after.