TAPAS.network | 15 May 2025 | Deep Thinking
Llewelyn Morgan, David Connolly and Andrew Archer
We can’t control the future- but it must surely help if we can imagine it
HISTORY OFTEN tells us that we missed the signs , and ignored the warnings, of things to come. And that we just couldn’t imagine all the consequences of continuing inevitable social, cultural, industrial and technological change .Sure, we cannot write the script , or control the way the future unfolds , but that doesn’t mean we are without influence , or have the opportunity to anticipate what we are likely to be dealing with and minimise the impacts.
Severe climate events are one stark reminder: that if we don’t come together around a deliverable shared vision for the future, a particularly unwelcome one may be shaped for us—whether we like it or not. As John Connor famously said in The Terminator, “The future has not been written. There’s no fate but what we make for ourselves.” Surely it is therefore worth some time and effort to explore our visions , and share thinking about the approaches we should best adopt to avoid being left behind by events.
In the lead-up to Future 2050, the new high-level transport conversation bringing together forward thinkers from academia, government, and industry, we’ve challenged three of event partner SYSTRA’s leading experts to explore a range of thought-provoking future scenarios. These were carefully chosen to spark lively debate and inspire new thinking about the UK’s long-term future, and transport’s place in that.
At Future 2050, these three scenarios – and others – will be presented and explored to help provide insight and options that can guide the development of useful, relevant and cohesive visions for social, environmental, and transport policy that fits the 25 year pathway we are likely to be on from now to 2050. They are, of course, not mutually exclusive, nor cover all the potential avenues of human development. But we hope a taste of each of them here will help set the scene for some great discussion at the event on June 10th!
Technology in charge
SYSTRA’s Head of Innovation envisions a future transformed by technology
In this future world, generative AI has matured into an omnipresent force, and quantum computing has unlocked unimaginable levels of processing power. Wearable tech, neural implants, and immersive virtual environments allow us to remain permanently connected - working, socialising, and learning in digital spaces where avatars stand in for physical presence.
The need to travel to meet others diminishes as virtual interaction becomes seamless and immersive. Autonomous transport dominates, and our cities and towns evolve to reflect this shift—designed for intelligent, coordinated, human-free mobility. Freed at last from the grip of hydrocarbons, every journey by land, air or otherwise is optimised for energy and time.
But in this hyper-efficient, AI-orchestrated world, where does that leave us?
What becomes of human spontaneity, creativity and expression, our music, art, and culture, the things that make life meaningful?
As we navigate this hybrid existence, steered by algorithms and nudged by digital cues, will we recognise what we’ve gained… and what we’ve lost?
Coping with calamity
SYSTRA’s Director of Low Carbon Mobility imagines a future shaped by environmental collapse and political centralisation.
In this scenario, every climate metric is flashing red. Successive record-breaking heatwaves push catastrophe closer with each passing summer, and the prospect of Mars-like conditions becomes a grim reality for vast swathes of the planet. The weakening Gulf Stream meanwhile plunges northern Europe into harsh, ice-age-style winters, while rising sea levels wreak havoc on coastal communities.
Food insecurity grows. Europeans face the looming threat of shortages, even famine, as agriculture buckles under climate pressure. In response, governments seize greater control over food and energy systems, shifting into war-like economies defined by centralised power and rationed resources.
For ordinary citizens, private travel becomes a luxury few can afford, burdened by soaring costs and government-imposed restrictions. Personal freedom, how and where we work, live, and play, erodes in the face of state intervention. Even the wealthy are not immune, as survival demands conformity to a tightly managed, resource-scarce society.
In this world, climate change is not a distant warning but a governing force that reshapes the very structure of everyday life.
Life lived local
SYSTRA’s Director, , envisions a brighter, more localised future, one that could be realised within the next 25 years if the political will exists.
In this socially-shaped future, development is holistic and deeply integrated, designed to ensure that people have easy access to everything they need within their local area. Mixed-use planning is the norm, reducing the need to travel and enhancing quality of life.
Out-of-town mega enterprises have come to recognise their social impact and now contribute levies that help revitalise high streets, keeping them vibrant with retail, services, and local businesses. Employers are incentivised through tax breaks to support remote working and to encourage use of modern, well-equipped co-working hubs found in all new housing developments.
The transport hierarchy starts with walking and cycling and only then considers public transport and, finally, private electric vehicles—whose role has been significantly reduced thanks to the dense and accessible nature of this new urban model.
This is not just a vision, it is a call to citizen-led action. With bold planning reform and targeted investment, local living could become the standard across the UK. Not one of many planning options, but the central principle of a new era that builds for people, not just places, while rectifying the missteps of recent decades.
So what is the strongest prospect – and how will the different forces of change play out?
We hope these contrasting scenarios help demonstrate the very different possible foundations on which transport planning will be undertaken in the next quarter century – and how we might need to plan for the emergence of some elements of them all.
Will a world dominated by AI and automation - à la John Connor in Terminator - reshape everything? Will escalating climate crises force dramatic restrictions on daily life? Or can we carve a path toward balance, sustainability, and resilience through provision for having the necessary open discussion across society today?
Perhaps, indeed, that very conversation about these potential outcomes can itself trigger steps to embrace, cope with or maybe avoid the very outcomes we forsee. It should at least, be worth the time to undertake a little careful scrutiny and reflection …
This article was first published in LTT magazine, LTT915, 15 May 2025.
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