Putting the car in its place

MARGARET THATCHER was reputed to have once asserted that ‘anyone on a bus over the age of 25 is a failure’.

We can’t prove whether the former Prime Minister did or didn’t say this, but it appears that the phrase was originally coined in post war Society circles and picked up and popularised by the Duchess of Westminster in the 1950s. At some point it became common to attribute the statement to Mrs Thatcher after she apparently said something similar in 1986.

Numerous MPs have since attributed the quote to Mrs Thatcher in parliament, it seeming to embody some kind of cultural truth to some of them, whilst being a suitable put down observation about the late Prime Minister’s individualistic free market thinking to others.

It is interesting to reflect on this topic of changing tastes in transport choices and usage in the context of both Mrs Thatcher’s reputed aphorism from 1986,, and the fact that only three years later LTT was first published - the first of the 900 issues we have produced with the publication of this one. Our mission was then, and remains, to properly explore all dimensions of local transport in one place across the divide of public and private transport and to seek a better balance between cars and other modes taking into account both social, economic and environmental impacts.

It is nice to think that some progress has been made in the 35 years of that endeavour, and how some of our core values and beliefs have beneficially moved on such that a comment like Margaret Thatcher’s would not seem very appropriate today.

Either way, the issue of personal behavioural choice in transport, and in particular dependence on private rather than public forms of mobility, has been a defining matter for a considerable chunk of society. Implicit in this has been the aspirations of young people to ‘better themselves’ and express their social mobility by having a car, and their first car in particular.

But, times change, and so do measures of status and style. Recognising this has in recent years led to the discussion about a range of behavioural issues in transport, including the concept of ‘peak car’, i.e. the ceiling on levels of car ownership being reached, and of a younger generation emerging who don’t have the same aspirations, or personal drive toward that objective.

In the 1990s, 80% of people were driving by the age of 30. In recent years, this point was only reached by the age of 45, and men under 30 are travelling only half the miles their fathers did.

A few years ago, the Commission on Travel Demand was set up by Professor Greg Marsden to study these mobility and behavioural changes to see if they should sensibly lead to a government re-think about transport priorities. The Commission was an independent group of academic experts on travel forecasting, funded by a government-backed Research Council.

Its report All Change, published in 2018, pointed out that people in general were driving much less than had been forecast, figures confirmed in the recent 2023 National Travel Survey, which showed average trips for both car drivers and passengers remained below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, there has been a gradual decline in car driver and passenger trips since 2002, with 17% and 23% fewer trips on average respectively in 2023 than levels seen in 2002. For average miles travelled by car, the trend since 2002 was similar to that for trips.

The proportion of households with one car was 44% in 2023 a long-term trend that has remained broadly constant since 2002, as has the third (34%) of households which had 2 or more cars - 34%in 2023.

The Commission said that inappropriate DfT traffic forecasts have not properly taken into account the fact that people generally are driving less. Commission chair, professor Marsden, said “Many young people are happy to live their lives without a car - especially in big cities where public transport is good.”

Prof Marsden’s report says: “There is a combination of longer-term societal shifts in activities such as how we work and how we shop, changing demographics, shifts in income across the population as well as policies in the transport sector which have encouraged urbanisation.

The recession has played a part - as has the shift to mobile internet and other advances in information and communication technologies. However, the trends pre-date both of these.” Other contributory factors in a complicated equation might be high car insurance for young men in particular, and the growth in taxi services like Uber.

More recently, Marsden and Leeds University Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) have initiated another new Research Council- funded project, called Infuze, on how to support a change away from car-dependence by encouraging people to move into car-free housing developments in Leeds and make most of their trips by active travel and public transport modes He wants to see a virtuous circle begin with the planning of cities where people can walk, cycle and use public transport and taxis - without needing to own a car.

It could mean more investment in public transport, walking and cycling provision in cities where many young people prefer to live without owning a car. This would reduce pollution, help combat climate change and make cities more enjoyable places to live. Different solutions would be needed in rural areas where good public transport is scarce and where most people are dependent on cars, it is acknowledged.

Meanwhile the crucial need to plan new housing developments that provide residents with genuine choices that are not car-dependent, is at the heart of current discussions prompted by the new Government’s planning reforms. There is a major opportunity to get the ground rules right for this, which is the subject of an a Transport and Housing event organised by LTT in partnership with the Transport Planning Society taking place on November 8th, more details of which you can find in this issue on Page 7.

Recent data suggests that patterns in car ownership and purchasing have been further changing following the pandemic, the rising cost of living and the ongoing transition to electric vehicles. A new piece of work for the DfT, reported in this issue of LTT, provides evidence into current views and reported behaviours around car ownership to inform policy at the Department. It was conducted by Thinks Insight and Strategy, and involved some consumer qualitative research surveys, accompanied by a car ownership evidence review. The overall objective of the research was to explore the current decision-making process and customer journey in relation to buying or relinquishing a car.

Amongst the findings were that car purchase and ownership are still largely driven by life circumstances along with a desire for the conveniences offered. While participants found it difficult to clearly articulate specific changes, there was some indication that recent societal trends had, in some cases, impacted their car ownership journey.

The increased cost of living was generally considered a factor impacting decisions, especially for participants who had relinquished a car, but also in budget-setting amongst car purchasers. To some extent price increases in the new and second-hand car market impacted behaviour. However, it was increases in prices across the economy that participants felt had impacted their available budgets when considering purchase cost, vehicle specification, whether to buy or lease and whether to use the new or second-hand market. This reduced availability of funds aligns with trends noted in the evidence review, particularly increased borrowing and growth in the used car market.

The Covid-19 pandemic was also seen as a factor which some people felt impacted their car ownership journey, largely as it had accelerated a trend to more working from home, thereby leading to less car use. This may also be a contributing factor to changes in car ownership behaviour, as car-sharing within households has become more viable as the need for regular individual car use has reduced, the report notes.

The introduction of clean air zones was also identified as a factor in behaviour change which shaped participants’ purchasing decisions (and could in the future) with it serving as both an incentive and disincentive when selecting a car or choosing to relinquish one. Similarly, when participants were asked to theorise how their views may shift over the next five years, the main change that participants confidently predicted was the move towards lower emission modes of transport, such as EVs, as they become more normalised and more affordable.

At the time of the research, however, participants who did not already own an EV generally said they did not intend to purchase EVs themselves. Reasons centred around costs and uncertainties, which may change over time as EV ownership becomes more normalised, affordable, and better understood.

As well as the move to EVs, there is another switch going on - the trend to ‘Van life’, encouraging younger people to switch their choice of vehicle from cars to light commercials. Younger car owners are increasingly turning to vans for general driving, new research by The Green Insurer has indicated, as we reported in our last issue.

A quarter of 25 to 34-year-olds are considering buying a van instead of a car when they get a new vehicle, the study found. This, it suggests, highlights how vans are becoming more popular for general leisure use and not just for business.

Currently more than a third (36%) of van owners are not deploying them as dedicated freight carriers or other commercial uses, and say that they are using their vehicles solely for social, domestic and leisure purposes. Three in 10 (29%) say they use their vans for both work and leisure, and 35% say they use it only for their business, the study found.

But it is not only 25-34-year- olds switching to vans from cars, according to the study, with 8% overall considering purchasing a van as an alternative to a car, and men and women equally interested in vans ahead of cars.

Having more space to carry large items such as surfboards or camping equipment was cited by 71% as one of their top three reasons for choosing a van over a car. This was followed by a van’s versatility to be used for both work and family leisure activities (54%), the ability to carry more people (49%); and the flexibility to adapt the interior space in terms of seating or large object storage (41%).

Paul Baxter, CEO of The Green Insurer, said: “Our research confirms that the ‘van life’ movement continues to gain popularity, especially amongst younger generations seeking a versatile and functional vehicle that affords them the freedom to travel. Today, vans can be much more than work vehicles used for the transportation of goods or tools. The increased space they offer over cars can be customised to suit a variety of needs.”

It is this adaptability that has broadened vans’ appeal beyond the traditional business domain to a wide range of personal uses and activities. There is even now a Van Life festival for those embracing this new lifestyle choice.

Such behaviour change, growing policies to influence modal choice and encourage active travel,, and better planning for more suitable accessibility and mobility provision, are some of the key subjects to have grown in significance over the 35 years and 900 issues since publication of LTT began.

Achieving a balance between public and private transport has been, and remains, a central thread.

For some, resolving the difficult trade-offs between personal freedom and an overall more sustainable approach to transport represent a life’s professional endeavour, working or campaigning in the transport field. For others, transport decisions are intuitive and merely practical element of daily life. Nonetheless, if social values, culture and awareness of broader issues change, so can those transport decisions, Hopefully in ways to the benefit of both individuals and society at large, if they mean the dominance of the car is diminished.

Peter Stonham is the Editorial Director of TAPAS Network

This article was first published in LTT magazine, LTT900, 2 October 2024.