Yes, AVs can have a role - but only where they fit in

AUTOMATED VEHICLES are in the news again - they could hardly not be if Elon Musk is involved. But the Tesla CEO’s launch of his much-fanfared Robotaxi at a glitzy event held at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California complete with dancing Robots was arguably more show than substance. Musk unveiled the Cybercab: a self-driving taxi which has two seats, no steering wheel and no pedals, saying, rather unconvincingly it would be available “before 2027”.

“I think it’s going to be a glorious future,” he told the crowd. But glorious for whom, he didn’t amplify.

As have others excited about the coming of AVs, it seemed he was looking at things from far too narrow a perspective - that of the automotive suppliers.

In any case, who knows if his futuristic vehicle was a working model, or just a ‘concept car’ nicely styled to look the part, and win him some air time

Meanwhile, not very far away, also in California but in Los Angeles, people are already being carried about by autonomous vehicles operated by Waymo. It seems that the future is already here…or at least there.

Arguably, the more interesting prospective innovation that Musk also unexpectedly unveiled at the event last week was a second vehicle, the Tesla Robovan- a larger goods or passenger shuttle vehicle which might just be more likely to change the face of transport for the better.

It had the looks to do so,with its sleek curves and horizontal lines, and streamlined front akin to a futuristic train, Could it be a new incarnation of public transport? Tesla says its Robovan can either be used to transport cargo or carry up to 20 passengers, making it perfect for high-density space-efficient trips at a lower cost that the conventional human-driven alternative.

In its bus mode the vehicle will in fact be more likely to successfully operate autonomously, than the taxi or AV cars, especially if kept away from mixed traffic in which driverless cars have already been found to have problems : For themselves, in effectively navigating ; and for the wider community, in threatening harm to the urban fabric, and the established use of streets by a varied mix of vehicles, people and other commercial and civic activities.

Arguably, the more interesting prospective innovation that Musk also unexpectedly unveiled at the event last week was a second vehicle, the Tesla Robovan- a larger goods or passenger shuttle vehicle which might just be more likely to change the face of transport for the better.

Carefully designated routes for both driverless public transport and goods-carrying vehicles seem feasible opportunities to gain the benefits of automation - and avoid some of the potential downsides.

This is a far more logical deployment of AVs than offering individual motorists the driverless cars seemingly exciting the minds of politicians, the media and the automotive industry. That would simply see private car owners relieved of their duties behind the steering wheel to pack in yet more screen time work or leisure viewing, as they move around space-inefficiently in crowded areas. Everyone seeking to do so individually seems a nightmare vision, encouraging yet more traffic and the congestion and external impacts that all motorised vehicles make, even if not reliant on fossil fuels. Whilst keeping this opportunity to a privileged few would be socially highly divisive.

Harnessing the benefits of autonomous driving for collective travel seems far more worthwhile.

The AV shuttle system soon to carry visitors in and around the NEC, which we also report in this issue, provides a good example.

The Solihull & Coventry Automated Links Evolution (SCALE) project is a collaborative initiative, aimed at better understanding the role self-driving vehicles might one day play within our future transport system. The SCALE pilot will see a fleet of three electric self-driving shuttles carry passengers along a new 7km route linking up Birmingham International rail station, the NEC and Birmingham Business Park.

The accessible fully-electric shuttles being used for this latest trial have been built by New Zealand based autonomous vehicle manufacturer Ohmio and can carry up to 20 passengers. In line with current legislation, the shuttles will for the time being always have a human operator onboard, with the ability to take control if required.

Funding for the multi-million-pound project has been provided by the Department for Transport’s Centre for Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV). SCALE represents the next step in its learning and will help develop understanding around how future commercial passenger services might operate.

SCALE is one of the six successful projects from the CCAV Deployment competition, which it is claimed form the most advanced set of commercial, self-driving passenger and freight operations anywhere in the world.

The Highlands and Islands Transport Partnership has meanwhile this summer been working with the University of Glasgow and various commercial partners to test the use of automated vehicles to support journeys between transit hubs in Inverness.

Two driverless vehicles created by Coventry-based autonomous transport designer Aurrigo, including a four-seat shuttle pod, have taken passengers between Inverness Airport and Dalcross railway station. Meanwhile, a larger, 10-seater pod will offer a ride around the University of Highlands and Islands’ Inverness campus.

These new tests hope to gauge public perceptions of autonomous vehicles and the feasibility of introducing such services.

Partner Stagecoach also already operates the UK’s first driverless bus service, which takes passengers between Fife and Edinburgh Park across the Forth Road Bridge, The AB1 service links Ferrytoll Park & Ride with Edinburgh Park, stopping next to the rail and tram station there.

UK government bodies Innovate UK and the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles have funded the Scottish projects.

Similar auomated public transport trials are taking place in other parts of the world including China and South Korea.

The US-based Society of Automotive Engineers categorises AVs from Level 1 to 5. Level 1, the most basic, relates to giving human-driven vehicles features such as cruise control, while Level 5 is a fully-automated vehicle that can operate independently under any conditions and in any situation. These do not currently exist. The most advanced AVs operating at the moment are in China and the United States: passengers can take a Level 4 taxi in Beijing, and parts of California and Arizona. These cars have no safety driver, but must stick to certain roads and routes.

How far self-driving technology for individual vehicles can actually advance is up for debate. Without a complete overhaul of how our cities function - both higly expensive, disruptive and unlikely to be generally acceptable - many doubt whether truly autonomous general vehicular traffic is possible or desirable, certainly not for many years ahead..

Harnessing the possibilities of autonomous buses and freight vehicles on designated routes is a far more logical deployment of AVs than offering individual motorists the driverless cars seemingly exciting the minds of politicians, the media and the automotive industry.

Having thousands of autonomous cars driving around a city, often empty, is only going to make roads more congested - not less, critics point out.

But the possibilities of autonomous public transport, on carefully chosen routes, look attractive because the majority of the cost of a bus route currently is the driver’s pay. Naturally, this may lead to some concern among existing drivers at their replacement, but driverless trains already exist and it could logically be driverless buses next, particularly on Bus Rapid Transit-type high frequency urban routes. And also for smaller distributor pods like those on campuses, airports or other sites that can be properly designed to accommodate them - even perhaps carefully integrated into the fabric of the wave of New Towns the Government is hoping to build.

A recent International Transport Forum report pointed out that on the street there is a lot more to think about than private cars- driverless or otherwise. Our streets are very valuable public assets, as John Dales explores in his column in this issue and there is an urgent need to re-assert a balanced and optimally fair and efficient structure for their management and control.

In the report of the House of Commons Transport Committee inquiry into Self-Driving Vehicles, published last September, the MPs warned that the Government must take a cautious, gradual approach with the technology introduced only in well-defined and appropriate contexts. “Without careful handling, self-driving vehicles could worsen congestion and exacerbate existing inequalities in transport access,” they cautioned.

The challenge from the AV technical possibilities is to get the right framework to address three potentially conflicting very different objectives. Those of supporting industrial and technological innovation and economic development; of providing a desirable transport system; and of ensuring a pleasant and sustainable human habitat. If these can all sit comfortably alongside each other- and that’s a big question- it is clearly not just a simple regulatory or even safety matter.

More fundamentally, autonomous vehicles should not just be seen as types of cars without drivers – but the basis of a much more radical change to collective transport when deployed in pods or on rapid transit routes? And even if such options are best, should they be limited to use in suitable urban forms – like newly developed towns and cities where AVs can be comfortably fitted in, and not expected to operate in more traditional and historic environments? Or maybe kept to roads like motorways where cars (and trucks) are really king, and there is no other ‘street life’ to be concerned about.

There are clearly huge and complex issues to be understood, thought through, and decided upon – and the widest possible approach to those decisions seems essential.

These matters surely need to be given a very broad public policy view – a kind of thoughtful Buchanan ‘Traffic in Towns’ report looking to a prospective the future as widely as possible, and at both the context, the challenges and the potential consequences. Such a review needs to be conducted now, BEFORE the outcomes of the AV revolution – if that is what is coming – kick in, and to decide where they are acceptable, desirable and beneficial - and where they are not.

Peter Stonham is the Editorial Director of TAPAS Network

This article was first published in LTTmagazine, LTT901, 16 October 2024.