TAPAS.network | 19 December 2022 | Commentary | John Siraut

Station usage figures show a changed post-Covid rail market

John Siraut

The changing pattern of rail travel in Britain is revealed in new figures from the ORR examining station usage. The differences in returning post-Covid demand between Regions, Urban and non-urban areas and commuter, inter-city and leisure travel are quite significant says John Siraut

IT’S THAT TIME OF YEAR when the Office for Rail and Road publish its annual estimates of National Rail station usage across England, Scotland and Wales. The figures cover the financial year April 2021 to March 2022 and though still heavily impacted by Covid restrictions and responses, they indicate a rather different travel landscape emerging. With total rail usage having continued to recover strongly, especially for leisure travel, there are considerable differences between regions and between stations in different areas that are very worth exploring, beyond looking at just absolute passenger numbers. 

For the record, the busiest station was London Waterloo once again, returning after being knocked off the top spot last year by Stratford (London). Waterloo’s passenger numbers though, at 41.4 million, are still less than half of its pre-lockdown figures. Eight of the top 10 are London stations, with Birmingham New Street and Manchester Piccadilly coming in at eighth and 10th respectively. Elton and Orston in Nottinghamshire was the least used.

This year, data was provided for 2,568 stations which range from unstaffed halts in remote areas of the country to bustling city centre termini. Figure 1 gives an idea of the variety of the type of stations served by the rail network. Stations have been split into quintiles based on usage. The least used 20% of stations account for 0.3% of total rail use while the busiest 20% are used by an average of 2.8m people a year and account for over 80% of total rail use.

23.2.1

Rail use is still heavily dominated by London whose stations handle nearly 50% of all passenger journeys. However, once account is taken of the regions’ different levels of population this falls to under 40% as shown in figure 2. After London, the South East, North West and the East of England have the highest rail use taking account of their populations.

23.2.2

Usage of the rail network obviously depends on its extent and there are large differences in the average number of people per rail station across the regions as shown in figure 3. The North East has one station per 48,000 residents (in part due to the transfer of many stations to the Tyne & Wear Metro). The East Midlands is the next, sparsely served with one station per 45,000 residents. The West Midlands is also not well serviced. Wales with a station for every 14,000 people and Scotland one for every 15,000 are better served.

23.2.3

Recovery in rail use has varied around the country as shown in figure 4. Boosted by domestic tourism in 2021, the South West saw the biggest bounce back with usage at 90% of pre-Covid levels. Cornwall and Devon both had higher rail use in 2021/22 than in 2019/2020. With tighter Covid restrictions than England, Wales and Scotland had the smallest recovery, followed by London and the South East reflecting the high levels of working from home in these areas.

23.2.4

At a city level the changes are even more pronounced. Cities that have limited commuter traffic fared best with Newcastle and York at 80% of pre-Covid levels. Tourist destinations such as York and Cambridge performed better than Reading or Birmingham. Cardiff, Edinburgh and Glasgow are towards the bottom due to the tighter Covid restrictions that were applied in those locations.

23.2.5

In London, the impact of working from home can clearly be seen in that the Cities of London and Westminster had the lowest level of recovery while less affluent boroughs with fewer commuters saw demand return close to pre-Covid levels.

23.2.6

Rail is often perceived to be used by well-off commuters living in London and the South East and those making long inter-city journeys on the main radial routes in and out from London. However, the impacts of Covid have highlighted that it is often lower income earners that are heavily dependent on rail for commuting and connecting with other regional economic and social activity in other parts of the country where the train network allows it.

It must be a significant development that leisure use of the railway is a growing phenomenon, and an activity more evenly distributed across income levels.

John Siraut is director of economics at Jacobs.

This article was first published in LTT magazine, LTT859, 19 December 2022.

d5-20221219
taster
Read more articles by John Siraut
34 million cars in the UK – but a changing mix of what they are, and who drives them
The number of cars in the UK has continued to grow, but also to change in both the types of vehicle – and who owns them. So has the cohort of licence holders. John Siraut explores the characteristics of this huge fleet and their drivers, and what it means for transport policy.
Who drives, and how well? A look at the numbers and their variation by gender and age
There are some interesting contrasts in the data for mens’ and womens’ driving activities, and the variations between different age groups. John Siraut takes a look at licence-holding, driving tests, insurance costs and claims levels, and at who gets the most penalty points
National TSGB and London Travel data annuals underline changing patterns of transport use
New transport and travel data is emerging all the time, but it is useful to occasionally take stock of all the available material to tease out overall patterns and trends. Publication of the two annual compendiums Transport Statistics Great Britain and Travel in London at the end of the year provided such an opportunity for John Siraut.
Read more articles on TAPAS
Time to get back to normal, kick-start business as usual. Not.
IT’S UNDERSTANDABLE that phrases such as ‘back to normal’ and ‘business as usual’ have resonance to people whose lives have been disrupted. We yearn to see relatives and friends, are desperate for images of reliable jobs and incomes, meeting places open again, and seeing grandchildren (and a little less of the children, handing education back to those who know what they are doing).
Blue sky, or mission-led? Setting the right research agenda
When budgets are squeezed, and priorities are set, some things are always going to be seen as more desirable - or expendable - than others. And that depends on your point of view. This can apply at both aggregate overall levels, and in more detailed areas of expenditure like research and development. Especially so if it is funding about conceptual and behavioural matters with ‘soft’ or uncertain outcomes, that is being considered.
IT’S UNDERSTANDABLE that phrases such as ‘back to normal’ and ‘business as usual’ have resonance to people whose lives have been disrupted. We yearn to see relatives and friends, are desperate for images of reliable jobs and incomes, meeting places open again, and seeing grandchildren (and a little less of the children, handing education back to those who know what they are doing).
No image available
Road appraisal makes carbon dioxide uniquely insignificant. Why? And what to do about it?
The decisive current calculation for carbon assessments of road schemes is a unique ratio: The estimated additional carbon resulting from the scheme / The total carbon emissions in the economy. The implications of this emerged last month in Lynn Sloman and Lisa Hopkinson’s thoughtful and well-sourced report, which concluded: “[The Roads Investment Strategy] RIS2 will make carbon emissions from the Strategic Road Network (SRN) go up, by about 20MtCO2, during a period when we need to make them go down, by about 167MtCO2. This increase in CO2 from RIS2 will negate 80 per cent of potential carbon savings from electric vehicles on the SRN between now and 2032.”